Pre-El Nino temperature (a, c and e) and dry season climate baseline (b, d and f) impacts on aboveground biomass carbon, with forest response variables expressed as relative change. Relative carbon changes are expressed as a percentage of pre-El Nino aboveground biomass carbon at each plot, for example (El Nino carbon gains - pre-El Nino carbon gains)/pre-El Nino aboveground carbon. The net carbon change (a and b), carbon gains from recruitment and growth (c and d) and carbon losses from mortality (e and f) are shown for 123 long-term inventory plots. The pre-El Nino temperature (T) (a, c and e) is the mean of mean monthly temperature in the monitoring period before the El Nino, using the census dates of the plot censuses. Point shading from light to dark denotes greater weighting, with plots and line of best fit weighted by an empirically derived combination of pre-El Nino plot monitoring length and plot area for each response variable. Solid lines represent significant linear models (P < 0.05) and dashed lines represent significant one-tailed Kendall's correlation tests using rank-based linear model estimation (P < 0.05). Slopes, intercepts and P values for significant linear models are as follows: B: y = -0.005 x + 0.3, P < 0.001, D: y = -0.002 x + 0.2, P = 0.001, F: y = 0.003 x - 0.002, P = 0.02. See Extended Data Fig. 6 for an alternative analysis excluding censuses before 2000, and Extended Data Fig. 7 for an alternative analysis with carbon changes in absolute terms.
