Temperature anomaly (a, c and e) and drought anomaly (b, d and f) impacts on aboveground biomass carbon, with forest response variables expressed as relative change. Carbon changes are computed relative to pre-El Nino aboveground biomass carbon for each plot, for example (El Nino carbon gains - pre-El Nino carbon gains)/pre-El Nino aboveground carbon. The net carbon change (a and b), carbon gains from recruitment and growth (c and d) and carbon losses from mortality (e and f) are shown for 123 long-term inventory plots. The intensity of temperature change, Δ temperature (T) (a, c and e) is mean monthly temperature in El Nino minus mean monthly temperature pre-El Nino, using the census dates of the plot censuses. The intensity of the change in dry season strength is calculated as ΔMCWD (b, d and f), which is the difference between maximum MCWD in El Nino and mean MCWD in pre-El Nino. Point shading from light to dark denotes greater weighting, with plots and line of best fit weighted by an empirically derived combination of pre-El Nino plot monitoring length and plot area for each response variable. Solid lines represent significant linear models (P < 0.05) and dashed lines represent significant one-tailed Kendall’s τ correlation tests using rank-based linear model estimation (P < 0.05). Slopes, intercepts and P values for significant linear models are as follows: A: y = -2 x + 0.5, P = 0.01, B: y = -0.008 x - 0.08, P = 0.02, D: y = -0.003 x + 0.1, P = 0.01, E: y = 1.6 x - 0.3, P = 0.02, F: linear model is not significant, P = 0.07, but rank-based model is, P = 0.01. See Extended Data Fig. 4 for an alternative analysis excluding censuses before 2000, and Extended Data Fig. 5 for an alternative analysis with carbon changes in absolute terms.
