ΔSLP anomalies relative to 1960–1990, with a 5-year running mean applied. Grey shading represents the 2.5th/97.5th quantiles for the full ensemble (n = 4,800). Coloured lines show the ensemble median for each reconstruction method. Black lines show instrumental data for 1900–2010, from HadSLP 25 , ICOADS 26 and ERA-20C (ref. 27 ). Triangles denote volcanic eruptions with reconstructed SAOD ≥ 0.05 (ref. 35 ). CPS, composite plus scale; CPScoa, CPS using only records in a tropical Pacific ‘centre of action’; CPSns, CPS using only records without a known seasonal bias; fiPCA, ‘full-interval’ principal component analysis; opPCA, ‘overlap-period’ principal component analysis; PaiCo, pairwise comparison; PCRall, principal component regression using all proxy records; PCRcor, principal component regression using only records significantly (P < 0.1) correlated with the training ΔSLP index in the calibration window.
