The blue dots show the observed rate of acute monthly hospital admissioneg, in June 2009 there were 58.41 hospitalisations per 10 000 older adults. The red solid line shows the rate of acute monthly hospital admission estimated by the complete reform model (negative binomial regression modelling)eg, in June 2009 the complete reform model estimated that there were 61.11 hospitalisations per 10 000 older adults. The red dashed line shows the counterfactual that estimated the rate of acute monthly hospital admission if no reform had occurred (negative binomial regression modelling)eg, in June 2018 the counterfactual estimated that there were 71.43 hospitalisations per 10 000 older adults. However, the complete reform model estimated that in June 2018 there were 69.99 hospitalisations per 10 000 older adults (red solid line). This finding suggests that the rate of monthly hospitalisations estimated by the complete reform model in the post-reform period was lower than that estimated by the counterfactual.