Bar plot showing results from simulations of early phase 2 clinical trial scenario utilizing test data, where an early endpoint based on ctDNA (mResp by C3D1 OS model) is compared to early radiographic endpoints (week 6 RECIST response, week 6 PFS). Bar height corresponds to the proportion of simulations in which the active arm had higher rates of treatment response compared to control arm (‘true go rate’) for each early endpoint ( x axis), where the left panel shows simulations comparing active ABCP arm to control BCP arm (left panel, brown colors), and right panel shows simulations comparing active ACP arm to control BCP arm (right panel, orange colors). X axis corresponds to which early endpoint is used in the simulation, comparing ctDNA criteria alone (mResp by C3D1 OS model), radiographic response alone (CR/PR by RECIST), PFS alone, or ctDNA added to radiographic response or PFS response.
