Line Step from Scientific Research

The proportion of ensemble members for which the difference in time between short- and long-term exceedance is ≤ n months. The black line shows the 100 member ensemble; the red line is restricted to members with strong El Niño conditions at the time of short-term exceedance. The yellow arrow at 0 months indicates that taking strong El Niño conditions into account reduces the simulated probability (from the horizontal black to red dotted line) that short-term exceedance occurs after the long-term Paris Agreement threshold has already been reached. LE, large ensemble.

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