Forest Plot from Scientific Research

All models were adjusted for covariates (table 2;appendix p 27). To estimate the number of deaths averted by USAID between 2001 and 2021, we simulated a counterfactual scenario in which USAID funding was set to zero, while keeping all other variables constant. We predicted the coefficientE(Yit|X), whereXrepresents the set of covariates including the interventions andYitthe mortality at country i, in year t. Thus, 100 000 Monte Carlo simulations were used to get a more accurate CI (appendix pp 37–38). USAID=US Agency for International Development.

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