Each violin plot shows the distribution of LCOH for imports from all modelled locations to Rotterdam. The width of the violin indicates the density of the distribution. Scenarios are defined as shown in Table 1. The orange line represents the cost of producing green H 2 in Rotterdam by 2030 as described in Methods; the green line shows green H 2 least cost realized in the European Hydrogen Bank auction closed in February 2024 with production scheduled to start in 2029 at the latest (Supplementary Table 6). Colours indicate the cost competitiveness with European green H 2 projects, where blue is in the money compared to the cost of green hydrogen produced in Rotterdam. Note that violin plots are fizzy at the end points, which exceed the minimum/maximum of the distribution. Supplementary Fig. 8 provides a boxplot for clear minimum/maximum values. The dotted line on the colour bar denotes the mean modelled cost of hydrogen produced in Rotterdam across the four scenarios. Dashed black lines within the violin plots indicate the median, and dotted black lines indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles. Supplementary Table 2 provides exact values. Excludes landlocked countries and Libya and Somalia (Methods).
