Cumulative proportion of hospitalized and symptomatic cases averted over 10 years by transmission setting (expressed as the average seroprevalence in 9-year-olds), assuming efficacy against infection and disease (VI, blue) or only against disease (VS, pink) decaying for 15 years (D15), using 80% coverage across 10 years and the Brazilian demography by serotype ( b ). The dashed horizontal line marks 0 cases averted. The solid lines represent the mean and the shaded regions represent the overall uncertainty (95%CrI) derived from n = 10,000 simulations (that is, 200 posterior distribution samples x 50 stochastic simulations per sample, see Methods for details).
