Plot the observed and projected evolution of premature deaths and the corresponding monetized losses between 2000 and 2059. Estimates of future losses are derived from demographic, climate, and economic projections under the three SSP-RCP scenarios. The retirement schedule of combustion power plants follows electricity sector scenarios from IEA 69 . The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes retirements in line with existing country pledges. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) assumes retirements in line with the IEA's current assessment of the region’s energy direction. The Reference Electricity Scenario (RES) assumes no retirements. All 66 projections (22 models x 3 scenarios) also assume that additional electricity demand is met with non-combustion power, that no new combustion power plants are introduced, and that the concentration-response function is constant (no adaptation). Bold lines are LOESS curve fits. Source data are provided as a Source Data file (sourcedata.xlsx). The data and code used to obtain the estimates are available at https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/217201 .
