Table Image from Scientific Research

Percentage differences are calculated by taking the difference between the predicted and observed. The predicted estimate is determined by the joint model estimating tuberculosis notified cases and prison population under a counterfactual scenario in which the COVID-19 pandemic did not occur for 47 countries that reported observed data for these outcomes. This model is based on data from 63 countries (including these 47 countries). More details can be found in theappendix (pp 3–4). Observed values and predicted estimates and 95% credible intervals are reported in theappendix (p 45). Subgroup estimates will not sum up to the global estimate as these are percentage differences between the observed and the predicted. All 47 countries are included. †Low burden: 0 to 20 cases per 100 000 person-years; medium burden: >20 to 50 cases per 100 000 person-years; high burden: >50 cases per 100 000 person-years. ‡45 countries are included, two countries (Tajikistan and Ireland) are excluded as they do not report any prison capacity data.

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