Hindcasting performance corresponds to the values of SMAPE over the years summed over all technologies. The lower (higher) is the value, the better (worse) is the hindcasting performance. Red dots refer to the techno-economic model version without societal factors incorporated. Black bars refer to the range of model version with societal factors included one by one and as combinations. With each societal factor represented or not, the range of hindcasting performance for each country is based on 7 to 64 hindcasting simulations depending on data availability (see Supplementary Fig. 1 for details about the combinations of factors considered). Data are presented as the range between the minimum and maximum values. Countries are ordered by gain in hindcasting performance induced by the inclusion of societal factors compared with the techno-economic model. Country names are represented with three-letter codes defined by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 3166-1 Alpha-3 country codes. The blue line represents the average hindcasting performance of all combination cases of countries and societal factors. For each country, the combination of societal factors leading to the best hindcasting performance is highlighted. Each letter refers to one societal factor incorporated: L, lock-in; T, fast transition; A, actors heterogeneity; I, investment risk; P, public acceptance; G, governance.
