Line Plot from Scientific Research

Latitude-weighted RMSE using ERA5 (ref. 34) reanalysis data as the ground truth, on the held-out test year (2018), for the surface variable: 10-m eastward wind (U10) as a function of lead time t . At lead time t = 0, Aardvark predicted the initial atmospheric state from observational data alone. The error at t = 0 corresponds to the error in the initial state. Note that HRES has a non-zero error at t = 0 compared to ERA5 reanalysis. The HRES forecasts 33 we used have been conservatively re-gridded to prevent aliasing, and we performed the same operation on the GFS forecasts 49. We report the mean performance of each system together with 98% confidence intervals in our estimate of the mean performance.

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