CCS capacity and market penetration achieved by 2030 ( x axis) versus a 10-year moving CAGR in 2030–2040 ( y axis). The maximum feasible capacity in 2030 makes up the feasibility frontier along the x axis (0.37 Gt yr − 1 or 1.8% of the market potential) (Fig. 2c ). Acceleration rates for the reference cases make up the three feasibility frontiers for CCS acceleration in 2030–2040, with the black lines showing the historical acceleration rates of nuclear (1961–1978), wind (1995–2017) and solar (2008–2022) power as reference cases for the CCS (Table 1 ). Dashed lines illustrate the continuation of these reference cases under higher than realistic CCS capacity by 2030. The dark red line shows the historical acceleration of FGD (1972–1986) as a reference case for the capture component of CO 2 . The hatched zone represents all observations within the feasibility frontier and the shading shows that this frontier is fuzzy, or in other words not binary 27 , 39 . The 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-compatible pathways 10 , 32 are shown as dots and their distributions form the two-dimensional (2D) density plot (from white to yellow). Blue and green isolines show different combinations of the two metrics that lead to the median CCS capacity in the 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-compatible pathways, respectively (Table 2 ), regardless of feasibility considerations. The x axis of this figure is cut off at 2.1 Gt yr −1 (10% market penetration), thus excluding 47 1.5 °C pathways (20%) and 33 2 °C pathways (8%) with a CCS capacity of up to 21 Gt yr −1 by 2030. Density plots are constructed from the entire sample of pathways ( n = 218 for 1.5 °C, n = 423 for 2 °C).
