Changes in the OWS duration as a function of the GSAT anomalies with respect to the historical period (18501900). Observations in b are HadCRUT5 (ref. 71 ) for GSAT and daily sea-ice concentration from EUMETSAT OSI SAF 72 for the OWS duration. Each dot represents a year and the vertical bars in a express the uncertainty due to the representation of permafrost OM characteristics. Extreme OM characteristics are highlighted as linear fits in grey (slopes in a ).