Maps of the temporal change in the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (W m -2 ), planetary heat uptake (W m -2 ), surface ocean heat uptake (W m -2 ) and surface ocean CO 2 uptake (mol C m -2 yr -1 ) evaluated for the historical period for all forcings ( a ), single radiative forcing experiments including only the effects of greenhouse gases ( b ) or aerosols ( c ) and compared with future projections following SSP2-4.5 (shown with an increased range for the radiative and thermal fluxes) ( d ). The maps in a – c are for a recent decade 2005–2014 relative to a decade in the pre-industrial era 1851–1860 and for d for 2091–2100 relative to 1851–1860. Diagnostics are based on model means: 17 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat, 20 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for carbon ( a ); 5 CMIP6 models with ensemble means for heat and single ensembles for carbon ( b and c ); and 10 CMIP6 multi-model, single-ensemble means for heat and 17 for carbon ( d ). Accompanying standard deviations are shown in Supplementary Fig. 3 .
