Scenarios were simulated using five GCMs for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) for 2040–2070 (orange), while historical data were used for 1980–2010 (blue). The direct climate change impact on yield was simulated with and without the modelled potential disease impact to calculate the per cent production loss due to wheat blast alone. Error bars indicate the variability in results among countries in each continental region for future climate change scenarios using five different GCMs based on the 10th and 90th percentiles. The dot plot corresponds to individual values. The analysis focused exclusively on nations with wheat growing areas with a total of 33 countries for Africa (n = 165), 3 countries for North America (n = 15), 5 countries for South America (n = 25), 35 countries for Europe (n = 175), 4 countries for East Asia (n = 20), 4 countries for South Asia (n = 20) and 2 countries for Oceania (n = 10). Continental regions are defined in Methods.
