Simulations used historical data for 1980–2010 or the output of five GCMs of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) for 2040–2070. Boxplots indicate the variability in percentage of wheat growing area per country within continental region that are vulnerable to wheat blast for baseline (blue) and future climate change scenarios (orange) where boxes represent the interquartile range and whiskers extend to the 10th and 90th percentiles. The analysis focused exclusively on nations with wheat growing areas leading to a total of 33 countries for Africa ( n = 33), 3 countries for North America ( n = 3), 5 countries for South America ( n = 5), 35 countries for Europe ( n = 35), 4 countries for East Asia ( n = 4), 4 countries for South Asia ( n = 4) and 2 countries for Oceania ( n = 2). Error bars represent differences among countries within the same continental region. Violin plots show the range and relative distribution of variability in disease vulnerability for each continental region. The median of each distribution is shown by the horizontal line in the box, and the mean is given beside each plot. Continental regions are defined in Methods .
