Carbon price trajectories assuming perfect foresight, myopic foresight and myopic foresight with external investors buying 5% or 20% of yearly auctioned allowances and reselling them once carbon prices reach the theoretical value from the perfect foresight path. If external investors had started buying 5% or 20% of auctioned allowances from 2018 onwards, they would own, respectively, around 10% or 40% of todays (as of 2022) total number of allowances in circulation. All trajectories correspond to newest targets from the Fit for 55 proposal with an active MSR. Exact assumptions on the number and timing of allowances bought and sold by external investors is available in Extended Data Fig. 2 .
