Trend in annual mean rate of onset (C decline on day one) for cold events for Port Alfred at inshore, midshelf and offshore pixels. For corresponding analyses at Port Elizabeth and Plettenberg Bay, including all model summaries, see Supplementary Figs. 2 – 4 and Supplementary Table 6 . Models were constructed using generalized linear models with Gaussian error structure and identity link on logit-transformed proportions ( a ), Poisson error structure and log link ( b ) or Gaussian error structure and identity link ( c , d ). Where model diagnostics indicated nonlinear relationships, corresponding models were fit as generalized additive models. Model fits are presented as means with 95% confidence envelopes.
