GDP impact of a +1 C increase in the annual temperature of a territory for different initial temperature levels ( x axis) using mean marginal effects (lines) with 95% confidence intervals around them (shaded area). Estimated using Supplementary equation ( 22 ) and the regression models in Supplementary Table 7 (columns 1, 2 and 5). No confidence interval shown for '+ Temperature variability' for visual conciseness.