Left figure panels show the protective efficacy of in-silico clinical trial outcomes for each simulated next-generation SMC profile. Grey curves indicate the model-estimated protective efficacy against clinical case incidence of each of 500 simulated SMC drug profiles. Solid black curves show the protective efficacy of sulfadoxinepyrimethamine plus amodiaquine against clinical case incidence, as extracted from data published by Zongo and colleagues.26Red dashed curves indicate a selection of the 500 simulated SMC drug profiles with a similar model-estimated protective efficacy to sulfadoxinepyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. This selection was assessed by calculating the residual sum of squares between simulated trial outcomes and the protective efficacy of sulfadoxinepyrimethamine plus amodiaquine and by identifying the simulated profiles with a residual sum of squares within 0.1 SD of the minimum residual sum of squares. Right figure panels show the full parameter space of modelled timeeffect relationships for a new drug (grey shaded regions). The red shaded regions indicate the space of parameter profiles with a similar model-estimated protective efficacy to sulfadoxinepyrimethamine plus amodiaquine, as indicated in the left figure panels. The dominant liver-stage activity model has a different model structure compared with the other two models, and therefore its parameters are different. SMC=seasonal malaria chemoprevention.