Line Plot from Scientific Research

The dots show the probability of a first 1.5 C year falling within the 1.5 C 20-year period as a function of the warming rate, assuming that the first 1.5 C year is reached under the currently observed trend and standard deviation. Uncertainty ranges (vertical bars) reflect combined uncertainty in the currently observed trend (5-95th percentile range 1) and standard deviation (range across observational datasets; Methods). The bottom-right bar shows the currently observed trend and its 5-95th percentile range 1 (0.026 (0.02, 0.04) C yr -1).

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