The time lag is denoted by Δ t , with positive values implying that the first year above a warming level occurred within the 20-year period reaching the same warming level (vertical light orange band). The blue dots indicate different observational datasets. The box plots (showing median and interquartile range) are derived from models under a moderate emissions scenario SSP2-4.5 (black whiskers extend to the most extreme data points within 1.5 times the interquartile range from the box).
