Ocean temperature trends are plotted in red (left axis); ice-shelf basal mass loss trends in blue (right axis). The scenarios are described in Extended Data Table 1 ; note different time spans and ensemble sizes ( n =5 for Paris 1.5 C and the Fixed BCs scenarios, and n =10 for all others). Temperature is averaged over the continental shelf and the depth range 200–700 m. Basal mass loss is integrated over the ice shelves between Dotson and Cosgrove inclusive and expressed as a percentage of the 1920–1949 historical ensemble mean. Both variables are smoothed with a 2-yr running mean before computing trends. Each scenario shows the ensemble mean (white stars), median (green lines), 25–75% range (boxes), full ensemble range (whiskers) and individual trends (black dots).
